April 4, 2013

Connecticut Academy of Arts and Sciences

Minutes of the CAAS 1427th Meeting

Tuesday, April 4, 2013 at Wesleyan University, Usdan Center

 

 

The 1427th Meeting of the Connecticut Academy of Arts and Sciences was held in the Usdan Center of Wesleyan University on Tuesday, April 4.  Some 40 members and their guests attended the lecture and some 15 stayed for dinner.  

 

At 5 pm Ernest Kohorn, the President of the Connecticut Academy, welcomed the audience.  He thanked the Academy’s Vice President for Wesleyan, Patricia Tully, for hosting the event. He recognized the previous Vice President, Professor Peter Frenzel, and said that Dr. Frenzel had always been a wise counselor and an active and helpful member of the Academy.  He was missed.  Dr. Kohorn then introduced Dr Tully, who also welcomed the audience.

 

Dr. Tully then introduced the speaker for the evening, Philip Resor, Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Wesleyan University. The title of Dr. Resor’s talk was “Faults, Frictions and Earthquake Predictions by Studying Ancient Faults from Connecticut, Italy and Greece.” 

 

Dr. Resor said that in 2009 there was an earthquake in L’Aquila, Central Italy after which scientists were put on trial for manslaughter for failing to predict that earthquake.  He said that there was failure and thus uncertainty in knowledge in terms of predictions especially short term predictions. The GPS (Global Positioning System) can measure how the earth is moving.  The hazard across the State of California was predicted but not how and where an earthquake would occur. Dr. Resor then described the physics of earthquakes:  faults suddenly occur; there is interplay between fossilized and elastic forces, and the earthquake is recorded in the rocks.  The quake occurs 15 kilometers down from the crust; however the crust is still of interest 10 kilometers down.  

 

The problem with the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, where the Pacific plate went under the Asian plate, is that it was much larger than had been predicted.  Earthquake recurrence models predict the time based on strain and release.  

 

In 2004 in the California earthquake, the time and tension was not predicted.  Nowadays, laser scanning helps in fault surface analysis. Fault surfaces are also visible because glaciers are melting. In fracking, for example, we know that drilling into rocks increases fluid which in turn increases friction.  So we are gaining more evidence so as to be able to predict more accurately.  There is a fault line on the Connecticut River near Gillette Castle.

 

Respectfully submitted,

Birgitta Johnson, Recording Secretary (with thanks to Margot Kohorn)